GNU under pressure: What the DA-ANC rift means for SA stability

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JEREMY MAGGS: Is it fair to say that South Africa’s government of national unity [GNU] is facing one of its most serious tests yet? The Democratic Alliance [DA] has declared a formal dispute over the Expropriation Bill, as well as the National Health Insurance [NHI] Bill, citing concerns over property rights and economic viability. So could this be the beginning of the end, or is there some room, some degree for compromise?

Joining us now with a closer look at the political and economic implications of this dispute from the Brenthurst Foundation, Ray Hartley, a very warm welcome. The Democratic Alliance has framed its opposition to these bills, in its words, as a red line. How serious, in your opinion, is this dispute? What’s at stake here for both the ANC [African National Congress] and the DA?

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RAY HARTLEY: Hi, Jeremy. Ja, I think this is the most serious threat to the continuation of the GNU that we have seen because of the words that have been used and the way it’s being described. So I think it’s an accumulation of a series of signing in of legislation that has taken place without consulting the opposition and at some point, they’re going to want to know what’s the point of being in the GNU if the ANC just does whatever it wants to do.

So it looks to me like it’s fairly serious. I do think that there is, within the DA certainly and elsewhere, and probably within a large part of the ANC, a recognition that the GNU has to continue, that the dividend that has come already from the GNU so far, just in terms of financial stability, global acceptance or renewed enthusiasm for South Africa and so on is so big that it would take something extraordinary to make that break.

JEREMY MAGGS: Ray, given that these bills were already in motion before the formation of the GNU, do you think the DA might have miscalculated its ability to influence legislation?

RAY HARTLEY: Ja, I think it believed that everything would have to be renegotiated. It’s a new government; it’s a different government to what was in office before. I think nobody would expect Donald Trump to sign into law legislation that had been initiated by Joe Biden because it’s a different government and it will take a different approach.

So even though the ANC was in the previous government and is still a part of the GNU, it is not a continuation of the previous government. It’s a break with that government and it’s a new governance administration in place. So it’s a bit disingenuous, I think, for the ANC to believe that it can continue with the legislative programme that it had when it had a majority, just willy-nilly, and impose that on the others.

JEREMY MAGGS: It’s fair to say, Ray, that this dispute, as you’ve outlined, is about policy, but it’s also surely about broader political power dynamics within the unity government and this was always inevitable, wasn’t it?

RAY HARTLEY: Ja, I think so. I think particularly within the ANC, because I don’t think people are aware of the compressed timeline that we’re in here. In two years and 10 months, Cyril Ramaphosa will no longer be the president of the ANC, and the previous record shows that once somebody else takes over, they want the presidency of the country before the next election. That’s always been the case with [Jacob] Zuma and [Thabo] Mbeki, and with Ramaphosa himself and Zuma.

So Ramaphosa is on a pretty short timeline here. He’ll be gone and will no longer be the person calling the shots. In the period leading up to that, of course, his influence wanes because he doesn’t promise any kind of future gratification for support that he receives.

So I think that compressed timeline, along with the rise of this populist kind of rebellion against the government of national unity within the ANC is causing Ramaphosa, I think, to try and get away with these showman-like acts of signing into law this legislation.

JEREMY MAGGS: Ray, there have got to be pressure valves within the setup itself. So how does the ANC and the DA, how do they go about starting to fix this then?

RAY HARTLEY: Well, I think that they have fixed something fairly big, although there’s a lot of contention about whether or not it’s properly fixed. So the disagreement over the Bela [Basic Education Laws Amendment] legislation in the education sector was pretty vociferous and they used the GNU mechanism and they resolved that, essentially by agreeing to sign it into law, but allowing that the minister [Siviwe Gwarube], who happens to be a DA minister, would then be in charge of formulating the regulations for implementation. So offering the opposition an opportunity to perhaps ameliorate the worst parts of that legislation.

So there’s an example of how it should be done, even though in that particular case, initially the opposition was ignored, but ultimately the mechanism did come into play. Now, these other pieces of legislation, the NHI and the Expropriation Bill, this did not occur. This is simply the ANC asserting itself and saying, we are going to do this and be damned.

JEREMY MAGGS: Just a final question. The Democratic Alliance today arguing that these bills will harm investment and economic growth. Already today we’ve seen both the rand and the JSE on the back foot, the business community is going to be nervous about this.

RAY HARTLEY: Ja, I think so. I think that the assumption post the formation of the GNU has been that there’s a rationality that’s returned to financial economic management within government. This is the first proper, real suggestion that might not be the case.

So, for example, the finance ministry has failed completely to budget for the NHI, for example. There’s no money set aside for it, there’s no plan and yet it’s being pushed ahead, and this means that that money will be taken away from other programmes or be raised through borrowing. So it’s a break really with the proper fiscal approach to these things. I think expropriation has its own threats to property, to industrial property, mining and so on.

JEREMY MAGGS: I’m going to leave it there. Ray Hartley from the Brenthurst Foundation, always appreciate the analysis. Thank you very much for joining me today.

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