Davos can’t stop worrying about inflation genie in new Trump era

Global inflation hasn’t yet died and advanced economies outside China can’t be complacent at a time of fickle consumers and trade tensions, according to the last Davos panel of 2025.

Luminaries from International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva to BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink acknowledged that, for all the efforts by central banks to tame consumer prices, policymakers can’t afford to take their eye off the ball.

“Most of the body of the genie is in the bottle, kind of getting stuck there,” the IMF managing director said. “But the legs are kind of hanging still out. We need to push it all the way down.”

The remarks chimed with concerns aired frequently during the past week in and around the World Economic Forum, a period coinciding with the first four days of Donald Trump’s new term. While his arrival as US president excited finance executives, it’s largely caused global economists and central bankers to wince at the possible fiscal, inflation or growth consequences.

That contrasts with the cautious optimism that featured during last year’s Davos finale, where participants exuded nervousness at the possibility of a Trump comeback but did wonder aloud if the global inflation shock may fade. Fink isn’t convinced.

“I believe the bond market is indicating that inflation may be higher than we think,” he said Friday. “The genie may be coming out of the bottle.”

Alongside, Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a veteran economist and former finance minister of his country, observed a longer-term backdrop that’s stoked consumer prices.

“Central banks and fiscal authorities have made mistakes in the last 15 years that set us on a somewhat higher plane of inflation for the medium term than we otherwise would be,” he said.

The emphasis in Davos contrasted slightly with that from the IMF itself just a week ago. It upgraded its global growth forecast then for this year, spurred by stronger-than-expected US demand and moderating inflation worldwide, and said that backdrop should let central banks continue cutting borrowing costs.

Worries about consumer prices have still abounded throughout the week. As the forum began, former Swiss central bank chief Philipp Hildebrand — vice chair of BlackRock — worried that inflation could turn out to be “stubbornly sticky” and predicted “not many, if any” US rate reductions. Ken Rogoff, once a chief economist at the IMF, said that the “odds of a hike as as good as the odds of a cut.”

That’s not an outlook Trump is likely to welcome. Speaking by video to the forum on Thursday, he pledged to the biggest tax cut in US history, repeated threats of tariffs, called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to “bring down the cost of oil,” and added that when that happens, “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

The Saudi Arabian finance minister, Faisal Alibrahim, didn’t rise to that demand when speaking on the panel. Meanwhile Fink, though perhaps less hawkish than Hildebrand or Rogoff, said the outlook doesn’t promise much in the way of easing from the Fed.

“They still have room to cut,” he said. Still, “the economy is very strong” and “I see probabilities” that the Fed might need to “revert and go back up,” he added.

For her own part, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, also speaking on the panel, expressed “strong confidence” that inflation is going down.

That chimes with the sanguine view shown by several of her ECB colleagues in Davos, suggesting they and peers aren’t yet flinching in the face of Trump’s threats. While the Europeans have reiterated signals of successive cuts in borrowing costs, on Friday, The Bank of Japan followed through with a rate hike to the highest level in 17 years.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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